A Democrat in the White House?
By KEVIN PHILLIPS; KEVIN
PHILLIPS'S MOST RECENT BOOKS ARE ''STAYING ON TOP: THE BUSINESS CASE FOR A
NATIONAL INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY'' AND ''POST-CONSERVATIVE
LEAD: THE END OF THE CONSERVATIVE ERA Liberalism After
Reagan. By Robert S. McElvaine. 338
pp.
THE END OF THE CONSERVATIVE ERA Liberalism After
Reagan. By Robert S. McElvaine. 338
pp.
A VERY good case can be made that the end of the conservative era in
That's certainly not for want of anti-Reagan indictments. The thrust of
''The End of the Conservative Era'' - he describes it as ''equal parts of
analysis, prediction, and prescription'' - is that the Republicans can no
longer hope for a deepening political supremacy because Reaganism
is in trouble and the country is getting ready to turn back toward liberalism
(which the author says will have to relabel itself
the ''New Progressivism'' in order to succeed). There's quite a bit of truth in
this, but Mr. McElvaine's analysis has about as much
balance as a junk-food diet - and the more tendentious parts of his book
underscore the ways in which many liberals may not yet be ready to take
advantage of their opportunities, thereby prolonging at least a more centrist
version of the conservative era.
Problem No. 1 with Mr. McElvaine's book is that he
really can't bring himself to admit what's been happening since the late
1960's. Four of the last five Presidential elections have gone to the
Republicans, three by outright landslides (1972, 1980 and 1984). That doesn't
happen in an ideological vacuum. By looking at the changes in key regions as
well as among ethnic and religious groups, it's easy to confirm what happened:
voting for President, Americans shifted against a Vietnam-Great Society era
permissive toward inflation, welfare, crime, drugs and military irresolution.
That shift is history now. But anyone who doesn't understand it may have a
wistful, even naive, view of the upcoming dynamics of centrist and progressive
re-emergence. I don't think Mr. McElvaine does really understand what happened.
As a Mississippian, he can see the way the race issue has devastated the old
Democratic coalition, but by overfocusing on that
factor he misses a larger realization. For example, consider this comment near
the beginning of the book: ''Opinion surveys throughout the 'conservative' era
of the late seventies and early eighties showed majorities of Americans to be
in agreement with basic Democratic social and defense policies.'' This is true
only if you define ''Democratic'' without reference to top
Partly in consequence, Mr. McElvaine's
prescriptions are a little naive too. Idealism abounds, culminating in a
proposal for a new international organization prepared to expel nations ''that
strayed from democratic values and practices.'' In another section, he calls
for a ''Bill of Responsibilities'' to complement our Bill of Rights. Its contents? Everything from protection
of the environment to commitment to peace.
PERHAPS a third of Mr. McElvaine's book consists
of serious and perceptive analyses of President Reagan and Republican
weaknesses, flaws and vulnerabilities - his dissection of Reaganomics, for
example. But too many pages are studded with endless, routine quotations from
Democratic politicians, especially putative and declared 1988 Presidential
candidates. Indeed, one senses that perhaps he has in the back of his mind the
hope that one of these worthies, on reaching